New world news from Time: Ethiopia Says Its Military Now Controls the Tigray Capital

NAIROBI, Kenya (AP) — Ethiopia’s army chief of staff says the military has control of the capital of the defiant Tigray region, Mekele.

Gen. Birhanu Jula made the comment on the state broadcaster Saturday.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said in a separate statement, “We have entered Mekele without innocent civilians being targets.”

Tigray TV earlier Saturday reported that the city was being “heavily bombarded.”

With communications cut to the Tigray region, it is difficult to verify claims by the warring sides as Ethiopia’s government pursues the Tigray regional leaders. Each government regards the other as illegal.

Millions of civilians have been affected as the fighting has gone on for nearly a month.

New world news from Time: Iran’s Supreme Leader Vows Revenge Over Slain Scientist

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran’s supreme leader on Saturday demanded the “definitive punishment” of those behind the killing of a scientist who led Tehran’s disbanded military nuclear program, as the Islamic Republic blamed Israel for a slaying that has raised fears of reignited tensions across the Middle East.

After years of being in the shadows, the image of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh suddenly was to be seen everywhere in Iranian media, as his widow spoke on state television and officials publicly demanded revenge on Israel for the scientist’s slaying.

Israel, long suspected of killing Iranian scientists a decade ago amid earlier tensions over Tehran’s nuclear program, has yet to comment on Fakhrizadeh’s killing Friday. However, the attack bore the hallmarks of a carefully planned, military-style ambush, the likes of which Israel has been accused of conducting before.

The attack has renewed fears of Iran striking back against the U.S., Israel’s closest ally in the region, as it did earlier this year when a U.S. drone strike killed a top Iranian general. The U.S. military acknowledged moving an aircraft carrier back into the region, while an Iranian lawmaker suggested throwing out U.N. nuclear inspectors in response to the killing.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called Fakhrizadeh “the country’s prominent and distinguished nuclear and defensive scientist.” Khamenei, who has the final say on all matters of state, said Iran’s first priority after the killing was the “definitive punishment of the perpetrators and those who ordered it.” He did not elaborate.

Speaking earlier Saturday, President Hassan Rouhani blamed Israel for the killing.

“We will respond to the assassination of Martyr Fakhrizadeh in a proper time,” Rouhani said. “The Iranian nation is smarter than falling into the trap of the Zionists. They are thinking to create chaos.”

Both Rouhani and Khamenei said that Fakhrizadeh’s death would not stop the nuclear program. Iran’s civilian atomic program has continued its experiments and now enriches a growing uranium stockpile up to 4.5% purity in response to the collapse of Iran’s nuclear deal after the U.S.’ 2018 withdrawal from the accord.

That’s still far below weapons-grade levels of 90%, though experts warn Iran now has enough low-enriched uranium for at least two atomic bombs if it chose to pursue them.

Analysts have compared Fakhrizadeh to being on par with Robert Oppenheimer, the scientist who led America’s Manhattan Project in World War II that created the atom bomb.

Fakhrizadeh headed Iran’s so-called AMAD program that Israel and the West have alleged was a military operation looking at the feasibility of building a nuclear weapon. The International Atomic Energy Agency says that “structured program” ended in 2003. Iran long has maintained its nuclear program is peaceful.

Fakhrizadeh’s widow appeared unnamed on state television in a black chador, saying his death would spark a thousand others to take up his work.

“He wanted to get martyred and his wish came true,” she said.

Hard-line Iranian media has begun circulating memorial images showing Fakhrizadeh standing alongside a machine-gun-cradling likeness of Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani, whom the U.S. killed in the January drone strike.

Soleimani’s death led to Iran retaliating with a ballistic missile barrage that injured dozens of American troops, but Tehran also has the support of proxy forces across the Mideast that it can call upon. The Iranian Guard’s naval forces routinely shadow and have tense encounters with U.S. Navy forces in the Persian Gulf as well.

Hours after the attack, the Pentagon announced it had brought the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier back into the Middle East, an unusual move as the carrier already spent months in the region. It cited the drawdown of U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq as the reason for the decision, saying “it was prudent to have additional defensive capabilities in the region to meet any contingency.”

Iran has conducted attacks targeting Israeli interests abroad over the killing of its scientists, like in the case of the three Iranians recently freed in Thailand in exchange for a detained British-Australian academic.

Iran also could throw out inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency, who have provided an unprecedented, realtime look at Iran’s nuclear program since the deal. Nasrollah Pezhmanfar, a hard-line lawmaker, said a statement calling to expel the “IAEA’s spy inspections” could be read Sunday, the parliament’s official website quoted him as saying.

Friday’s attack happened in Absard, a village just east of the capital that is a retreat for the country’s elite. Iranian state television said an old truck with explosives hidden under a load of wood blew up near a sedan carrying Fakhrizadeh.

As Fakhrizadeh’s sedan stopped, at least five gunmen emerged and raked the car with rapid fire, the semiofficial Tasnim news agency said. The precision of the attack led to the suspicion of Israel’s Mossad intelligence service being involved. The CIA separately declined to comment on the attack Saturday.

State media has only said the attack killed Fakhrizadeh, though a statement Saturday from the European Union described the incident as killing “an Iranian government official and several civilians.” EU officials did not respond to requests for comment.

In Tehran, a small group of hard-line protesters burned images of Trump and President-elect Joe Biden, who has said his administration will consider reentering Tehran’s nuclear deal with world powers. And while burning an American and Israeli flag, the hard-liners criticized Iran’s foreign minister who helped negotiate the nuclear deal, showing the challenge ahead of Tehran if officials chose to come back the accord.

___

Gambrell reported from Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

New world news from Time: U.K. Appoints Vaccines Minister to Oversee COVID-19 Inoculations

LONDON — The British government appointed a vaccines minister on Saturday as it prepares to inoculate millions of people against the coronavirus, potentially starting within days.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Conservative lawmaker Nadhim Zahawi will oversee the country’s biggest vaccine program in decades.

The U.K. medicines regulator is currently assessing two vaccines — one developed by Pfizer and BioNTech, the other by Oxford University and AstraZeneca — to see if they are safe and effective. The Guardian newspaper reported that hospitals have been told they could receive the first doses of the Pfizer shot the week of Dec. 7, if it receives approval.

The U.K. says frontline health care workers and nursing home residents will be the first to be vaccinated, followed by older people, starting with those over age 80.

Britain has ordered 40 million doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, enough for 20 million people, and 100 million doses of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine.

In all, the U.K. government has agreed to purchase up to 355 million doses of vaccine from seven different producers, as it prepares to vaccinate as many of the country’s 67 million people as possible.

Decisions about which, if any, vaccines to authorize will be made by the independent Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency.

Pfizer and BioNTech say their vaccine is 95% effective, according to preliminary data. It must be stored at ultra-cold temperatures of around minus 70 degrees Celsius (minus 94 Fahrenheit).

The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine can be stored at conventional refrigerator temperatures, and is also cheaper than its main rivals. But some scientists have questioned gaps in its reported results.

Oxford and AstraZeneca reported this week that their vaccine appeared to be 62% effective in people who received two doses, and 90% effective when volunteers were given a half dose followed by a full dose. They said the half dose was administered because of a manufacturing error, and they plan a new clinical trial to investigate the most effective dosing regimen.

The British government hopes a combination of vaccines and mass testing will end the need for restrictions on business and everyday life it imposed to curb the spread of the coronavirus. Britain has had Europe’s deadliest COVID-19 outbreak, with more than 57,000 confirmed virus-related deaths.

The prime minister said this week that officials hope to inoculate “the vast majority of the people who need the most protection by Easter.” But he warned that “we must first navigate a hard winter” of restrictions.

A four-week national lockdown in England is due to end Wednesday, and will be replaced by three-tiered system of regional measures that restrict business activity, travel and socializing. The vast majority of the country is being put into the upper two tiers.

Johnson faces opposition to the measures from dozens of his own Conservative Party’s lawmakers, who say the economic damage outweighs the public health benefits.

Bur Cabinet minister Michael Gove said the restrictions were “grimly” necessary to avoid the health system being overwhelmed this winter.

Writing in The Times of London, Gove said there are currently 16,000 coronavirus patients in British hospitals, not far below the April peak of 20,000. A rise in infections would mean coronavirus patients would “displace all but emergency cases. And then even those.,” he said.

“If, however, we can keep the level of infection stable or, even better, falling, and hold out through January and February, then we can be confident that vaccination will pull the plug on the problem,” Gove wrote.

New world news from Time: Iran’s Foreign Minister Suggests Israel Behind Killing of Nuclear Scientist

An Iranian scientist that Israel alleged led the Islamic Republic’s military nuclear program until its disbanding in the early 2000s was killed in a targeted attack that saw gunmen use explosives and machine gun fire Friday, state television said.

Iran’s foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the killing has “serious indications” of an Israeli role. “Terrorists murdered an eminent Iranian scientist today. This cowardice—with serious indications of Israeli role—shows desperate warmongering of perpetrators,” Zarif wrote in a Tweet.

Israel declined to immediately comment on the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, who Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu once called out in a news conference saying: “Remember that name.” Israel has long been suspected of carrying out a series of targeted killings of Iranian nuclear scientists nearly a decade ago. State TV said Fakhrizadeh was attacked by “armed terrorist elements.” He died at a local hospital after doctors and parademics couldn’t revive him.

The semiofficial Fars news agency, believed to be close to the country’s Revolutionary Guard, said the attack happened in Absard, a small city just east of the capital, Tehran. It said witnesses heard the sound of an explosion and then machine gun fire. The attack targeted a car that Fakhrizadeh was in, the agency said. Others wounded, including Fakhrizadeh’s bodyguards, also were taken to a local hospital, the agency said.

State television on its website later published a photograph of security forces blocking off the road. Photos and video shared online showed a Nissan sedan with bullet holes through windshield and blood pooled on the road.

No group immediately claimed responsibility for the attack. However, Iranian media all noted the interest that Netanyahu had previously shown in Fakhrizadeh.

Hossein Salami, chief commander of the paramilitary Guard, appeared to acknowledge the attack on Fakhrizadeh. “Assassinating nuclear scientists is the most violent confrontation to prevent us from reaching modern science,” Salami tweeted.

Hossein Dehghan, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader and a presidential candidate in Iran’s 2021 election, issued a warning on Twitter. “In the last days of their gambling ally’s political life, the Zionists seek to intensify and increase pressure on Iran to wage a full-blown war,” Dehghan wrote, appearing to refer to U.S. President Donald Trump. “We will descend like lightning on the killers of this oppressed martyr and we will make them regret their actions!”

The killing comes just days before the 10-year anniversary of the killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Majid Shahriari, which Tehran also blamed on Israel. Those targeted killings came alongside the so-called Stuxnet virus, believed to be an Israeli and American creation, that destroyed Iranian centrifuges.

The area around Absard is filled with vacation villas for the Iranian elite with a view of Mount Damavand, the highest peak in the country. Roads on Friday, part of the Iranian weekend, were emptier than normal due to a lockdown over the coronavirus pandemic, offering his attackers a chance to strike with fewer people around.

Fakhrizadeh led Iran’s so-called “Amad,” or “Hope” program. Israel and the West have alleged it was a military operation looking at the feasibility of building a nuclear weapon in Iran. Tehran long has maintained its nuclear program is peaceful.

The International Atomic Energy Agency says Iran “carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device” in a “structured program” through the end of 2003. That was the Amad program, which included work on the carefully timed high explosives needed to detonate a nuclear bomb.

Iran also “conducted computer modeling of a nuclear explosive device” before 2005 and between 2005 and 2009, the IAEA has said. The agency said, however, that those calculations were “incomplete and fragmented.”

IAEA inspectors now monitor Iranian nuclear sites as part of Iran’s now-unraveling nuclear deal with world powers. Netanyahu in 2018 gave a presentation in which he unveiled what he described as material stolen by Israel from an Iranian nuclear archive.

“A key part of the plan was to form new organizations to continue the work,” Netanyahu alleged in 2018. “This is how Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, head of Project Amad, put it. Remember that name, Fakhrizadeh.”

New world news from Time: Families of Six American Oil Executives Convicted in Venezuela Cry Foul

CARACAS, Venezuela — Hopes of families for a quick release for six American oil executives detained in Venezuela for three years over an alleged corruption scheme have evaporated, with a judge finding them all guilty and quickly sentencing them to prison.

Attorneys and relatives of the so-called Citgo 6 said the men were wrongly convicted, and the defense lawyers vowed to appeal Thursday’s verdicts.

Alirio Rafael Zambrano, whose two brothers were among the defendants, said they were “undeniably innocent” and victims of “judicial terrorism.” No evidence presented in the case supports a guilty conviction, he said.

“We, the family, are heartbroken to be separated even further from our loved ones,” Zambrano said by phone from New Jersey. “We pray that the leaders of our nation step forward and continue to fight unceasingly for their freedom and human rights.”

Attorney María Alejandra Poleo, who helped represent three of the men, said the case was “void of evidence.” “Of course, the defense will appeal the decision,” she said.

The so-called Citgo 6 are employees of Houston-based Citgo refining company, which is owned by Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA. They had been lured to Venezuela three years ago for a business meeting and were arrested on corruption charges.

Their arrest launched a purge by President Nicolás Maduro’s government of PDVSA and at a time when relations between Caracas and Washington were crumbling as Venezuela plummeted into economic and social crisis.

Five of the men were sentenced to prison terms of 8 years and 10 months, while one of them received a 13-year sentence. Defense attorney Jesus Loreto said the five with lesser terms could be released on parole in a couple of years.

Venezuela’s Supreme Tribunal of Justice announced the verdicts and prison sentences but offered no other comment on the trial’s outcome.

One of the men, Tomeu Vadell, had said in a letter written in a Caracas jail and provided exclusively to The Associated Press before the verdict that he hoped for a fair trial so he could walk free with his name cleared and go home to his family in the United States.

In a statement after the verdict, Vadell’s family said: “We are sad to see that justice did not prevail today. But we are hopeful that the truth will set our loved one, Tomeu, free and home to us soon.”

Despite his circumstances, Vadell had expressed hopefulness.

“During the trial, the truth has proven undeniable,” Vadell said in the four-page hand-written letter. “It proves that I am innocent.”

“I’m now reaching an intersection where if justice is done, I will be able to rebuild my life and try to compensate my family for all the lost moments,” he added. “The light is intense — the hope is great — give me freedom.”

It was the first time Vadell, or any of the so-called Citgo 6, had spoken publicly since being arrested and charged with in a purported big corruption scheme. He has been held at a feared Caracas jail called El Helicoide.

The others convicted are Gustavo Cárdenas, Jorge Toledo, brothers Jose Luis Zambrano and Alirio Zambrano, all now U.S. citizens. Jose Pereira, a permanent resident, received the longest sentence.

They were also charged with embezzlement stemming from a never-executed proposal to refinance some $4 billion in Citgo bonds by offering a 50% stake in the company as collateral. Maduro at the time accused them of “treason.”

They all pleaded innocence.

The men were summoned to the headquarters of PDVSA for what they were told was a budget meeting on Nov. 21, 2017. A corporate jet shuttled them to Caracas and they were told they would be home for Thanksgiving. Instead, military intelligence officers swarmed into the boardroom and hauled them off to jail.

Their trial started four months ago and closing arguments took place Thursday. The judge immediately announced her verdict.

The proceeding played out one day a week in a downtown Caracas court. Due to the pandemic, sessions were held in front of a bank of dormant elevators in a hallway, apparently to take advantage of air flowing through open windows.

News media and rights groups were denied access to the hearings. There was no response to a letter addressed to Judge Lorena Cornielles seeking permission for AP to observe.

The office of Venezuela’s chief prosecutor said prior to the verdict in a statement to AP that investigators found “serious evidence” that corroborated financial crimes potentially damaging to the state-run company.

“The Citgo case has developed normally during all the stages established by the Venezuelan criminal process,” the statement said.

Loreto said his client appeared to have been caught up in a “geopolitical conflict” of which he was not a part. He said Vadell’s name never appeared on any of the documents prosecutors read into evidence.

“There’s nothing that refers to Tomeu in any way — directly or indirectly,” the lawyer said. “This is the story of a good guy being held against his will for all the wrong reasons.”

Former New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, who has negotiated the release of other Americans held by hostile governments, traveled to Caracas in July and met with Maduro.

He didn’t win their freedom, but days later two of them — Cárdenas and Toledo — were freed from jail and put in house detention. Two weeks later, the long-delayed trial began.

Richardson told AP that conversations with the Venezuelan government continue despite his meeting with Maduro being “a little stormy.” He said he he believes there is an opening tied to President-elect Joe Biden and a desire by Maduro to improve relations with Washington.

“I think the Venezuelans have been straight with me, but more progress needs to be made,” Richardson said before the verdict. “My hope is to have something positive by Christmas.”

It is not clear what approach Biden will take toward Maduro. Trump aggressively pressed to remove Maduro through sweeping financial sanctions and the U.S. Justice Department has indicted Maduro as a “narcoterrorist,” offering a $15 million reward for his arrest.

Vadell’s letter steered clear of politics. He didn’t mention Maduro or speak about his jailers, though he did express concern about the “consequences of repercussions” of speaking out.

With encouragement from his family, Vadell broke his silence, taking a risk relatives said was necessary.

“I believe it’s more important that the light of hope illuminates us,” Vadell wrote. “May the light of hope put an end to the sadness of my family.”

The five other men did not respond to invitations AP made through their lawyers to comment.

Vadell’s daughter, Cristina Vadell, said in a phone interview from Lake Charles, Louisiana, that her father isn’t the kind of person who seeks attention. Rather, he prefers to focus on work and his family.

During his 35-year career with PDVSA and Citgo, Vadell ended up running a refinery in Lake Charles and then became vice president of refining. The letter attempts to expose this side of his life, she said.

“I think he was willing to take some risks and open some hearts to allow him to come home,” she said. “I think he’s still wondering ‘What happened?’ He went to a work meeting and never came home.”

New world news from Time: Paris Police Officers Have Been Suspended After the Violent Beating of a Black Music Producer in France Sparked Outrage

(PARIS, France)— A Black man beaten up by several French police officers said he is seeking justice after the publication of videos showing officers repeatedly punching him, using a truncheon and tear gas against him for no apparent reason.

French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin ordered the officers involved in the case suspended.

The incident came as President Emmanuel Macron’s government is pushing a new bill that restricts the ability to film police, which has prompted protests from civil liberties groups and journalists concerned that it would allow police brutality to go undiscovered and unpunished.

Videos first published on Thursday by French news website Loopsider show the violent arrest of a music producer identified only by his first name, Michel, in the 17th arrondissement or district of the French capital on Saturday.

The video images obtained by the Associated Press, both from a security camera inside the studio and filmed by neighbors outside, show three officers following Michel inside his music studio, where they can be seen repeatedly punching him and beating him with a truncheon.

Read More: A Young Black Man Died in France 4 Years Ago in Police Custody. Now Thousands Are Protesting in His Name

Michel told the Associated Press he feels “good” now that “the truth is out.”

“I want to understand why I have been assaulted by people who were wearing a police uniform. I want justice actually, because I believe in the justice of my country,” he said.

Michel said that the officers hurled repeated insults at him, including a very strong racist epithet.

He added that he still does not understand why officers decided to arrest him. He suffered injuries to his head, forearms and legs.

His lawyer, Hafida El Ali, said: “He asked them what they wanted, if they wanted to check his identity. … They didn’t stop beating him, the video of the violence (inside the studio) lasts for 12 minutes.”

At some point the officers called in reinforcements and went outside. They then threw a tear gas grenade into the studio to get those inside to come out, according El Ali.

El Ali said that nine others who were recording music in the studio basement were also beaten.

“Outside they are still beaten up and thrown to the ground and that’s the moment when a police officer sees they are being filmed,” she said. Then the violence stops.

Michel was taken into custody.

“These videos are essential because initially my client was being detained… for violence against people with public authority,” El Ali said. “This is very serious. The reality is that if we didn’t have these videos maybe my client would be in prison.”

Darmanin tweeted that the body that investigates allegations of police misconduct, the Inspectorate General of the National Police, known by its French acronym IGPN, is looking into the case, saying, “I want disciplinary proceedings as soon as possible.”

The Paris police prefecture said in a statement that IGPN will seek to establish the exact circumstances surrounding the man’s arrest.

The Paris prosecutor’s office is also investigating the police actions. The prosecutor’s office said Thursday it has dropped the proceedings against Michel opened the day of his arrest, and instead opened an investigation for “acts of violence by a person in position of public authority” and “false declaration.”

According to Le Parisien newspaper, based on the written record of the officers’ declarations the day after the arrest, Michel drew their attention because he was not wearing a mask — which is mandatory in Paris outdoors amid the coronavirus pandemic. He seemed “nervous” and a “strong drug smell” was emanating from him. They said he was getting “dangerous” toward them.

Michel’s lawyer said: “My client never committed any violence against the police… He did not even defend himself.”

It’s the second such police brutality investigation in Paris this week prompted by video footage. The government ordered an internal police investigation on Tuesday after police officers were filmed tossing migrants out of tents and intentionally tripping one while evacuating a protest camp.

That same day, France’s lower house of parliament approved a draft law meant to strengthen local police and provide greater protection to all officers. It notably makes it a crime to publish images of officers with intent to cause them harm. The bill, which enjoys public support after recent terrorist attacks, will now go to the Senate.

New world news from Time: Why India’s Most Populous State Just Passed a Law Inspired by an Anti-Muslim Conspiracy Theory

India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, introduced a law outlawing so-called “Love Jihad” on Tuesday, the first of at least five states led by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) that are considering new legislation targeting interfaith relationships in the world’s largest democracy.

Love Jihad is a baseless conspiracy theory that Muslim men are attempting to surreptitiously shift India’s demographic balance by converting Hindu women to Islam through marriage. The narrative has been pushed by Hindu nationalist groups close to India’s ruling BJP since Prime Minister Narendra Modi was first elected in 2014. Since Modi came to power, his government has introduced several other measures that target India’s minority Muslim community. The conspiracy has received renewed attention after a Hindu woman in Haryana was murdered in October by a Muslim man who, her family said, had pressured her to convert and marry him.

The new law was agreed by the BJP-led cabinet of Uttar Pradesh, the Indian state home to the largest number of Muslims, more than 38 million. The law makes no specific mention of the term Love Jihad, according to Indian media reports. Instead, it outlaws “unlawful religious conversions” through marriage. But the state’s chief minister Yogi Adityanath, a hardline Hindu nationalist monk and a senior member of the BJP, said at a rally on Oct. 31 that his government had decided to “enact a strict law to stop Love Jihad.”

In the speech, Adityanath also issued a veiled threat of violence toward Muslim men in interfaith relationships. “I warn those who conceal their identity and play with the honour of our sisters and daughters, if you don’t mend your ways, your final journey will begin,” he said.

Love Jihad enters the mainstream

In recent weeks, the Love Jihad conspiracy has risen to new prominence in the national conversation. In October, a television advert depicting a happy interfaith marriage between a Hindu woman and a Muslim man was withdrawn by the jewelry company Tanishq, after receiving complaints from Hindu nationalists that it promoted so-called Love Jihad.

On Monday, police registered a case against Netflix for a scene in the show A Suitable Boy that depicted a Hindu woman and a Muslim man kissing against the backdrop of a temple, described as “extremely objectionable content” by Narottam Mishra, the home minister of the BJP-ruled Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, who is weighing a similar law.

The new legislation in Uttar Pradesh, which needs to be approved by the BJP-dominated state parliament within 42 days to remain active, will impose fines and a jail term of up to ten years for men found to have converted a woman’s religion solely for the purpose of marriage, or by use of force, coercion or misrepresentation, according to The Hindu newspaper. The law also gives the state the power to nullify any marriages found to have been carried out with the “sole intention” of changing a woman’s religion.

Read More: Narendra Modi Looks the Other Way as New Delhi Burns

While the full text of the law has not been released, experts say it could face challenges in the courts. “They seem to suggest that this law will only make it an offense if a woman were to convert for the purposes of marriage, which attracts a challenge on the grounds of gender discrimination,” says Arun Sri Kumar, a partner at Keystone, a Delhi law firm. He adds that other challenges could be brought based on constitutional protections for freedom of religion and also arbitrariness, because the law appears to impose a reverse burden of proof, meaning that anyone trying to change their religion for marriage will have to prove the conversion was consensual, rather than the state having to prove the conversion was coercive.

Experts say the rules are vulnerable to exploitation by Hindu nationalist groups at the expense of the Muslim minority and the individual rights of Hindu women, in what remains a patriarchal society. “The law serves the dual purpose of regulating Hindu women on one hand and criminalizing Muslim men on the other,” says Ajay Gudavarthy, Assistant Professor at the Centre for Political Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi. “This is a way of taking the threat of organized terrorism, which Narendra Modi himself has acknowledged is not a major problem in India, and turning it into a notion of everyday terrorism, providing further justification of unaccountable state violence against Muslims.”

“The narrative of Love Jihad seeks to popularize the myth of Hindu culture as under siege, Hindu women as vulnerable, and justify the Hindu male as the protector-aggressor,” says Angana Chatterji of the Center for Race and Gender at the University of California, Berkeley. “This law will likely signal that religion-based violence, caste oppression, and sexual violence are tools to champion nationalism and patriotism.”

On Nov. 17 Mishra, the home minister of Madhya Pradesh, said his state government was planning to bring a law with five-year jail terms for perpetrators of “Love Jihad.” And after the Uttar Pradesh cabinet approved its own new law, officials in other BJP-ruled states said they would fast-track similar bills. The home minister of Haryana said the state government there was “in the process of framing a strict law” on so-called Love Jihad that would be enacted “very soon.”

Rejected by police and the courts

The Uttar Pradesh state government has described its new law as ensuring “justice for women,” but officials in the state have already raised concerns. Of 14 alleged Love Jihad cases investigated by a special police unit in the state since August, eight have already been thrown out after police determined the relationships were consensual, according to the Wire, which quoted an unnamed senior police official saying the state government had exaggerated the issue.

Read more: It Was Already Dangerous to Be Muslim in India. Then Came the Coronavirus

The new law comes just two weeks after judges in Uttar Pradesh’s high court overturned a previous decision that religious conversions for the sake of marriage are unacceptable. One case supported by the state government saw the father of a Hindu woman argue that his daughter’s Muslim husband had kidnapped her and converted her against her will. After considering the evidence, judges found the relationship to be consensual.

The judges said they did not see the couple “as Hindu and Muslim, rather as two grown-up individuals who out of their own free will and choice are living together peacefully and happily [for] over a year.” In a blow to the Adityanath government, the judges ruled that similar interferences in personal relationships “would constitute a serious encroachment into the right to freedom of choice of the two individuals.”

But the high court ruling does not mean the new law is invalid—it will have to be tested in the courts, according to Kumar.

New world news from Time: Biden Says Irish Border Must Remain Open as Brexit Talks Continue

President-elect Joe Biden has said that the border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland must remain open no matter the outcome of Brexit negotiations between the U.K. and the European Union, as Ireland’s foreign minister suggested Biden would take any risk to the peace process “personally.”

The President-elect told reporters on Tuesday that a closed border between Ireland, an E.U. member state, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K. “is just not right, we’ve got to keep the border open.” The dividing line was heavily militarized during the Northern Ireland conflict or “Troubles” and was opened after the historic Good Friday peace agreement was signed in 1998. Now, with Britain leaving the E.U., the prospect of border controls is again a reality. “We want to make sure – we’ve worked too long to get Ireland worked out, and I talked with the British prime minister, I talked with the Taoiseach [Irish Prime Minister], I talked with others, I talked to the French,” Biden said.

Biden’s remarks came after Ireland’s minister for foreign affairs Simon Coveney told TIME he believed the president-elect would not hesitate to use a mooted U.K.-U.S. trade deal as leverage to preserve the peace. If the U.K.’s departure from the E.U. undermines the Good Friday Agreement, Coveney said, Britain’s much sought-after trade agreement with the U.S. “simply won’t happen.”

British and European negotiators are currently locked in talks on trade relations after the U.K. completes its transition out of the bloc in January. At issue is the land border between the Republic of Ireland, which is an E.U. member, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the U.K. If the talks collapse without a deal, it raises the prospect of a hard border on the island to control customs — a move that governments in Ireland and Northern Ireland believe could enflame sectarian tensions.

A controversial bill introduced by the U.K. government in September would override the original terms of Britain’s withdrawal that ruled out customs controls along the Northern Irish border. In September, the E.U. leadership said that if the bill went ahead it would jeopardize the Good Friday Agreement and would be in “violation” of international law.

Coveney, who spoke to TIME on Nov. 20, predicted Biden’s administration would “look in a very critical way on a government or anyone who undermines the peace process on the island of Ireland … that would be a real problem for the U.S. and for Joe Biden personally.”

Read more: Brexit Has Revived the Prospect of a United Ireland. Could It Actually Happen?

In a memo published during his campaign, Biden — who traces his roots to Ireland — indicated support to the Irish government in relation to Brexit. Coveney said the Democrat’s election victory was a sign to Irish politicians that “we have many friends in Washington who see themselves as guarantors of the peace process in Northern Ireland.”

President Donald Trump has been a strong supporter of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and saw the Brexit vote as an expression of the same political fervor that initially brought him to office — during his 2016 campaign, he went as far as far as calling himself “Mr Brexit.” The prospect of Trump offering the U.K. a favorable bilateral trade deal with the U.S. post-Brexit emboldened Johnson’s hardline stance on the Brexit negotiations.

Coveney said that Biden might better grasp the Irish perspective. The president-elect “knows and understands the complexity of Irish politics better than most do in Washington and is very personally connected.”

However, he said he did not believe Biden was choosing to support Ireland over the U.K. “People shouldn’t confuse Joe Biden’s pro-Irishness as being in any way anti-British,” he added. “I think Joe Biden as a president will be very pro the U.K., I think the special relationship between the US and the UK will continue to be a special relationship but I also think the special relationship between Ireland and the United States will be reinforced.”

Biden has often referred to his Irish heritage and his great-great-great-grandfather Edward Blewitt left the town of Ballina, County Mayo, for America during the Irish famine 170 years ago. The town of Ballina celebrated his election win by erecting a mural of the President-elect. Biden visited the town as Vice President in 2016 and Coveney said he is sure he will visit again as President. “I know he will want to visit the communities he is linked with directly,” says Coveney. “He has already said he will visit Ireland during his presidency but of course we would encourage him to come as early as possible.”

Coveney says that Ireland’s influence within Europe could be of particular benefit to the U.S. as Biden will have to attempt to rebuild relationships after four years of the Trump administration’s policy of putting “America First” and diminishing multilateral alliances. “Ireland can be a bridge both politically and physically to build that transatlantic relationship in a very positive way,” says Coveney.

Read more: ‘Trump Has Been a Kind of Awakening.’ E.U’s Top Diplomat Says Europe’s Relationship With U.S. Is Forever Changed

While Ireland enjoyed a relatively good relationship with President Trump, Coveney said, the President’s position on international relations and particularly international bodies was “hugely disturbing.” Coveney added that he hopes to see the U.S. “begin to come back to the forefront of collective global efforts in so many collective global challenges,” from tackling the COVID-19 pandemic to rebuilding international commerce or climate change.

New world news from Time: Meghan Markle Shares Story of Her Miscarriage, Hoping to Break Culture of Silence

The Duchess of Sussex has revealed that she had a miscarriage in July, giving a personal account of the traumatic experience in hope of helping others.

Meghan described the miscarriage in an opinion piece in the New York Times on Wednesday. She wrote: “I knew, as I clutched my firstborn child, that I was losing my second.” The former Meghan Markle and husband Prince Harry have an 18-month-old son, Archie.

The duchess, 39, said she was sharing her story to help break the silence around an all-too-common tragedy. “Losing a child means carrying an almost unbearable grief, experienced by many but talked about by few,” she wrote. “In being invited to share our pain, together we take the first steps toward healing.”

In a startlingly intimate account of her experience, the duchess described how tragedy struck on a “morning that began as ordinarily as any other day: Make breakfast. Feed the dogs. Take vitamins. Find that missing sock. Pick up the rogue crayon that rolled under the table. Throw my hair in a ponytail before getting my son from his crib.

“After changing his diaper, I felt a sharp cramp. I dropped to the floor with him in my arms, humming a lullaby to keep us both calm, the cheerful tune a stark contrast to my sense that something was not right.”

Later, she said, she “lay in a hospital bed, holding my husband’s hand. I felt the clamminess of his palm and kissed his knuckles, wet from both our tears. Staring at the cold white walls, my eyes glazed over. I tried to imagine how we’d heal.”

Meghan, an American actress and star of TV legal drama “Suits,” married Harry, a grandson of Queen Elizabeth II, in a lavish ceremony at Windsor Castle in May 2018. Their son was born the following year.

Early this year, the couple announced they were quitting royal duties and moving to North America, citing what they said was the unbearable intrusions and racist attitudes of the British media. They recently bought a house in Santa Barbara, California.

New world news from Time: Thai Police Charge 12 Protest Leaders Under Harsh Royal Defamation Law

(BANGKOK) — Thai authorities have escalated their legal battle against the students leading pro-democracy protests, charging 12 of them with violating a harsh law against defaming the monarchy.

News of the charges comes as the Thai capital Bangkok girded for another rally Wednesday as the students push their demands that Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and his government step down, the constitution be amended to make it more democratic, and the monarchy be reformed to be made more accountable.

Police on Tuesday issued summonses for 12 protest leaders to answer charges of lese majeste, defaming or insulting key members of the royal family. The offense is punishable by up to 15 years imprisonment.

The law is controversial, because anyone — not just royals or authorities — can lodge a complaint, so it had in the past been used as a weapon in political vendettas. But it has not been employed for the past three years, after King Maha Vajiralongkorn informed the government that he did not wish to see its use. The king has not publicly commented on the law since then.

According to the legal aid group Thai Lawyers for Human Rights, the 12 suspects include top protest leaders known for their public criticism of the monarchy.

Many in the student-led protest movement believe the monarchy holds too much power for a constitutional monarchy. But their challenge is fiercely opposed by royalists, who consider the royal institution an untouchable bedrock of national identity.

One of the 12 protest leaders, Parit “Penguin” Chiwarak, posted his response to the summons on Twitter on Tuesday, saying: “I am not afraid anymore. The ceiling (of our demands) is destroyed. Nobody can stop us now.”

The protest movement late Tuesday night announced a change of venue for their latest rally, which was to put a focus on the monarchy. It had earlier announced that it would be held outside the offices of the Crown Property Bureau, which manages the vast fortune controlled by the king.

The target was switched to the head office of the Siam Commercial Bank, a publicly-held company in which the king is the biggest shareholder. The bank’s headquarters are in a different area of Bangkok, far from the district hosting the Crown Property Bureau and other royal and government offices.

The protest movement announced the change of venue was to avoid a confrontation with police and royalist counter demonstrators, which they said they feared could trigger a declaration of martial law or a coup by the military.

Barbed wire had already been installed around the Crown Property Bureau offices and the government had declared an exclusion zone of 150 meters (500 feet) around the property into which it would be illegal for protesters to enter. The bank, as a commercial enterprise rather than a royal office, apparently would not fall into the legal category of areas where an exclusion zone could be declared.

A protest rally on Nov. 17 turned chaotic, as police employed water cannons and tear gas to block the protesters from entering the Parliament grounds. At least 55 people were hurt, including six reported to have had gunshot wounds, incurred in circumstances that remain unclear. Police denied firing live rounds or rubber bullets.

The next day, several thousand demonstrators gathered outside the national headquarters of the police in central Bangkok to protest the use of force.

The rally at police headquarters was nonviolent but fueled royalist outrage at the protest movement, as demonstrators defaced the Royal Thai Police sign and scrawled graffiti and chanted slogans that could be considered derogatory to the king.

Prayuth reacted by declaring that the protesters had gone too far and could now expect to be prosecuted for their illegal actions. While protest leaders have faced dozens of charges over the past few months, they have generally been freed on bail, and none have yet come to trial.

A statement issued Wednesday by Free Youth, a driving force in a coalition of protest groups, called Thailand a failed state whose people “are ruled by capitalists, military, and feudalists.”

“And under this state, the ruling class oppress the people who are the true founders and heirs of this country,” said the statement, the most strident issued so far in the name of the group.

Many of their rallies have had a light-hearted element, with clever slogans and songs. But the statement declared that “This is not a frivolous fad, it is a fearless fight to light up the future in our generation.”

New world news from Time: Joe Biden Says the U.S. Will Lead on Climate. But First He Has to Regain World Leaders’ Trust

Joe Biden named former Secretary of State John Kerry to a new top position on global climate policy, a public step toward what the President-elect has promised will be a renaissance in American leadership on the issue.

Activists who hope climate change will play a central role in the new administration cheered the news, but both Kerry and Biden have their work cut out for them. After four years under Donald Trump, the Biden Administration inherits a badly bruised international reputation. Trump repeatedly denied the science of climate change, rolled back dozens of environmental and emissions-reduction regulations, and earned the derision of nearly 200 nations who co-signed the Paris Agreement on climate change when he announced the United States’s withdrawal from the pact six months after taking office.

With the U.S. retreat, the European Union and China came to occupy central leadership roles, while feeling burned by Washington — a pattern that has repeated itself over decades of climate discussions. “[The U.S.] been a little like Lucy pulling away the football from Charlie Brown and Peanuts,” says Alden Meyer, an independent strategist with four decades of experience in senior positions at major U.S. environmental groups. “The world has seen this movie too many times, and they’re getting tired of it.”

To turn the page on the Trump era and re-establish the U.S. as a global leader on climate, Biden and Kerry must rapidly accelerate emissions-reduction policies domestically and offer tangible support to partner nations that are making progress abroad. Crucially, allies say, the U.S. will need to reengage the world with a recognition that Washington can no longer unilaterally dictate the terms of engagement. “We have to reenter this field, when we join our allies, with a great sense of humility,” says Gina McCarthy, the former Environmental Protection Agency head who is now the president of the Natural Resources Defense Council. “We have a great deal of trust that we have to rebuild across the world.”

Part of the Biden Administration’s strategy will be to remind the world of the President-elect’s history of engagement. As a chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and, later, during his eight years as Vice President, Biden developed a positive reputation on the international stage, helping to usher in a golden era of American climate diplomacy. Kerry is also not only well-known internationally, but enjoys particular credibility in climate discussions. As Obama’s Secretary of State, he helped broker deals to win over developing countries and ensure adoption of the Paris Agreement.

The first real test will be whether the U.S. can put its money where its mouth is and pursue sweeping climate policy at home. Biden’s commitment to use a “whole of government” approach to tackle climate change — incorporating it into policymaking in nearly every agency from the Treasury Department to the Department of Defense — represents an important start, allies say. Restoring the Obama-era regulations that Trump has nixed, from vehicle emissions standards to rules targeting methane emissions, will also be key. Still, climate policymakers around the world are aware of the difficulties the Administration will face passing legislation through a divided Congress, as well as the potential challenges posed by an increasingly conservative judiciary.

The most important data point for global leaders will likely come when the U.S. announces a new formalized pledge, known as a Nationally Determined Commitment (NDC), to reduce emissions sometime next year. The NDC, a requirement under the Paris Agreement, will lay out a 2030 target for U.S. emissions reductions as well a plausible path to get there. An ambitious target would help build momentum for the United Nations climate conference scheduled to take place in Glasgow at the end of 2021. Countries that signed the Paris Agreement are expected to announce new NDCs ahead of that gathering—and a strong commitment from the U.S. would send a clear signal: the U.S. is back.

It remains to be seen how the U.S. will shape global climate discussions once it returns. One of the biggest questions is how Biden will re-engage China, the world’s largest emitter, which has sought to position itself as a climate leader in the U.S.’s absence from the global stage. China has committed to hit net zero emissions by 2060 and invested heavily in green industry. Under the Obama Administration, climate change served as an olive branch of sorts, an area where the two countries could work constructively—even as trade and military tensions simmered. But it remains to be seen whether Beijing and Washington can overcome the rupture in the relationship that occurred under Trump. “You have to engage them,” says Jonathan Pershing, a former special envoy for climate change at the State Department. “The question is what’s the balance between the stick, and the carrot.”

The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest emitters, generating more than 40% of global emissions, and meaningful collaboration between the two could quickly drive change not just in their domestic economies, but also within the countries where they have clout.

The outlook is different in Europe, where the EU — as well as individual countries — will certainly welcome the U.S. back into a leadership role. But European leaders may be especially conscious of the U.S.’s tone. While the Trump Administration has spent the past four years touting the rhetoric of America First, the EU has buckled down and done the difficult work of implementing aggressive global climate measures, including committing hundreds of billions of euros this year to greening the continent’s economy via its Green Deal. “The United States clearly faces a deep credibility deficit with our allies and the rest of the world,” says Nat Keohane, a vice president at the Environmental Defense Fund who advised President Obama on climate policy. “Climate is the best, or at least the most immediate, way to start climbing out of that credibility deficit.”

It’s unclear exactly what approach Biden will take to rebuild those relationships and bridge the gap. On the campaign trail, he promised to hold a climate summit in the first 100 days of his presidency, at which he would strong arm countries into reducing their emissions. “I would call the 100 nations — over 100 nations, but the 100 major polluters to the United States in the first 100 days to up the ante,” he said in the final Democratic primary debate in March. “If they didn’t, there would be a price to pay.”

International climate policy experts say the President-elect is unlikely to take such a punitive approach, in part because the U.S. will need to get its domestic act together before it can threaten disciplining actions abroad. Recent history provides several examples of the U.S. ultimately retreating on global leadership. In the 1990s, the Clinton Administration played an important role crafting of the Kyoto Protocol only for the U.S. Senate to pass a bipartisan resolution effectively rejecting the treaty. More recently, under the Obama Administration, the final text of the Paris Agreement had to be structured to meet U.S. legal requirements and to survive American Congressional and court scrutiny.

Experts widely expect the Biden Administration to come out of the gate early next year pursuing a diplomatic tack rather than pushing penalties for other countries, perhaps using the summit to showcase the progress made by allies and the achievements of some of the most vulnerable countries. Others predict Biden and Kerry will use the initial gathering as an opportunity to announce financial support for developing countries, which has been set back under Trump. However these details play out, the bottomline remains that constructive U.S. engagement on climate change is far and away better for the world of climate policy than any alternative. And, on that score, the rest of the world needs no convincing.

“There are have been highs and lows now for many years,” says Laurence Tubiana, the president of the European Climate Foundation who served as a key framer of the Paris Agreement as France’s Climate Change Ambassador. But “we need the U.S. back to accelerate a movement that has started already.”

New world news from Time: The Countries With the Most to Gain—and Lose—Under a Biden Administration

Donald Trump may not be over the U.S. elections… but plenty of other countries sure are. As the congratulations for president-elect Joe Biden and vice president-elect Kamala Harris from foreign leaders stream in, here’s a quick look at which world leaders have the most to gain and lose with the changing of the guard in Washington.

THE BIG WINNERS:

Canada—There’s good reason why Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was among the first world leaders to congratulate Biden and Harris on their victory. Much like Trudeau himself, Biden is a committed multilateralist in a world that’s increasingly hostile to that approach to global politics. Now Trudeau gets to be neighbors with someone who will work with him to build many of these institutions back up rather than undermining them from within… particularly on critical issues like climate change. A Biden administration is also less likely to start random trade wars with its northern neighbor over aluminum. Pretty much the best Canada could have hoped for.

France—French President Emmanuel Macron is in the same boat as Trudeau—a defender of a multilateral order that has seen better days. Trump’s departure on that front alone would be considered a significant win for Paris, but you better believe the French are all too happy to be welcoming into the Oval Office a president who will treat Europe as the traditional ally that it’s been for the last 80 years rather than an overnight trade enemy. Just as importantly for Macron—the French president is preparing to assume the European leadership reins once Angela Merkel finally leaves Germany’s political scene, and that transition will be made easier with the knowledge that the U.S. president views countries like Russia and Turkey as the same kinds of threats as his French counterpart does.

Germany—Angela Merkel did her duty, acting as primary foil and de facto leader of the free world as the Trump era got underway. Now that the U.S. has elected a more traditional/predictable leader, Merkel can step back from politics knowing she did the best she could under trying circumstances… and Germany can (finally) figure out what comes next post-Merkel.

Japan—Remember in November 2016, when then Prime Minister Abe Shinzo rushed to be the first foreign leader to congratulate Trump in person on his election win? That’s the premium Japanese leaders place on the U.S.-Japan relationship—and the security guarantees that come with it. But Abe was unable to ever fully woo Trump, who complained the bilateral alliance doesn’t provide enough benefits for the U.S. and should be overhauled. Now that Trump is on his way out, the man who replaced Abe in September, Suga Yoshihide, can look forward to a calmer, more traditional relationship with the U.S. Biden assured Suga on a call that he considers the Senkaku islands, which Japan controls but China also claims, to be covered by a U.S. commitment to come to Japan’s aid in the event of a third-party attack. Past U.S. presidents (including Trump) have made this pledge, but Biden also having done so will help dispel fears in Tokyo that he might take Japan for granted or be “soft” on China.

THE “MOSTLY” WINNERS:

Iran—Another Trump win would have forced Tehran into the unenviable position of deciding between suffering through the pain of its faltering economy or negotiating with the administration of the man responsible for assassinating the popular Qassim Suleimani. But the return of Joe Biden to Washington is no guarantee that the U.S. will rejoin the JCPOA, or that the U.S. will provide Tehran any type of meaningful economic relief; it’s also far from guaranteed that Iran would eagerly return to the JCPOA without preconditions after having been burnt so badly by Trump’s abrupt withdrawal (and given that their frozen assets have already been handed over)… especially if hardliners manage to win upcoming Iranian elections. All that said, the departure of Trump is addition by subtraction to the U.S.-Iran relationship.

Mexico—Back in 2016, plenty expected Mexico to struggle mightily as the world headed into the Donald Trump era, especially given the vitriol Trump directed at the country during the campaign trail. And yet the reality of the past four years has been quite different, mostly a result of Mexico’s political leaders being extremely practical and (correctly) recognizing the U.S. as being asymmetrically more powerful, yielding a policy of non-confrontation. As of this writing, Mexico’s president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) still hasn’t congratulated Donald Trump, but that has to do with his own history in contested presidential elections and a desire to avoid any scorched-earth policies from Trump until Biden can get sworn in. The Biden administration gets that, and they will be a much more predictable neighbor and one less likely to provoke a political crisis over migration issues. That said, a Biden administration is also more likely to emphasize labor and environmental standards than the Trump team ever did; it’s also possible tensions over AMLO’s state-centric policies impacting American renewable (and other) energy companies will emerge. Still, the changes work out in Mexico’s favor… plus they didn’t have to pay for that new, non-existent, wall.

Alejandro Cegarra—Bloomberg/Getty ImagesAndres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Mexico’s president, speaks during a news conference at the National Palace in Mexico City, on July 22, 2020.

South Korea—President Moon Jae-in remains keen to reengage North Korea and put the North-South relationship on a more even—and predictable—keel. But this already difficult task was made even more challenging by Trump constantly going off script in pursuit of his own political aims and budding bromance with Kim Jong-un, both of which resulted in big headlines but no progress toward persuading Kim to denuclearize. Now Seoul will have a partner in the White House more willing to coordinate to confront the North Korean challenge and who recognizes the geostrategic need for having U.S. troops stationed in South Korea—and won’t threaten to remove them if Seoul refuses to pay a lot more money for their upkeep. That said, Moon shouldn’t assume Biden will enthusiastically support Moon’s plans to pursue cross-border economic projects and cooperation with Pyongyang. Biden will be far more open than Trump to soliciting and accepting input from Seoul in formulating strategy vis-à-vis the North. But that doesn’t mean he’ll agree to give Kim gifts without getting some in return.

THE WINNERS WHO WOULD HAVE WON NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENED:

India—India’s Narendra Modi had one of the very best relationships with President Trump among world leaders, a function of his own personal politics as well as India’s critical geostrategic importance for a U.S. administration keen on taking the fight to China. While Modi’s Hindu nationalist politics will resonate less with President Biden, India’s position as a key part of the burgeoning Indo-Pacific strategy and potential as a counterweight to China in the region means it will retain a prime spot on the U.S. foreign policy agenda. And all that is before we mention Harris being the first person of Indian descent to make it to the vice presidency of the U.S.

Israel—The warm personal relationship between Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and Trump has netted Israel some clear wins, like getting the U.S. to move its embassy to Jerusalem and U.S.-brokered normalization of ties between Israel and Bahrain/UAE/others. But a president Biden is one of the most Israel-friendly politicians in Washington, and has no interest in expending the political capital to roll back any of these changes, changes that make both Israel and the Middle East more stable over the long-term. In other words, Israel got pretty much all it could out of Trump, and can use the next four years to help repair its relationship with the Democratic party—and with Biden’s help—to help restore U.S.-support for Israel to the bipartisan issue that it once was.

Artur Widak—NurPhoto/Getty ImagesIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands next to his wife Sara as he speaks to supporters following the announcement of exit polls in Israel’s election at his Likud party headquarters in Tel Aviv. on March 3, 2020.

THE “KIND-OF” LOSERS:

The United Kingdom—Boris Johnson has been banking on a U.S.-U.K. trade deal as a sort of backstop in case a Brexit agreement couldn’t be reached with Brussels. With Biden on his way to the White House, that is looking increasingly unlikely… and Brussels knows it. That makes Johnson’s already difficult task of balancing a sufficiently hard Brexit deal (which he campaigned on), a poor COVID-19 response and an internal rebellion among hardline Brexiteers within his government that much harder… all while maintaining support from an increasingly frustrated British public. And we didn’t even get to the part where Biden explicitly warned the U.K. from taking any moves that threatens reimposing a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, a personal issue for the former Senator from Delaware with Irish roots. On the plus side, Brexiting in a world with a Biden sitting in the White House will be less chaotic than the alternative. So that’s something.

Leon Neal—Getty ImagesBritain’s Prime Minister Boris Johnson returns to number 10, Downing Street following the weekly Cabinet meeting at the Foreign Office in London, on Nov. 10, 2020.

Saudi Arabia—Saudi Arabia will continue to remain a top-3 ally of the U.S. in the region (Israel and the UAE being the other two) under a president Biden given its wealth, energy and geostrategic importance in the region, but they are about to lose their particularly privileged position that they enjoyed under Trump. To say nothing of the fact that with Trump they finally had a U.S. president willing to make deals (and overlook thorny issues like human rights abuses), and one as oriented against Tehran as Saudi Arabia’s own political leadership. Not to mention they’re less relevant in the eyes of the most environmentally-oriented president in U.S. history. Needless to say, the Saudis will need to tread more carefully around Biden, and will need to brace for more potential trade-offs than they have had to make these last four years.

United Arab Emirates—See above, but replace the words “Saudi Arabia” with “United Arab Emirates.”

THE CLEAR LOSERS:

Brazil—Can one be the “Trump of the Tropics” if the original Trump no longer has a job? We’re about to find out. The one thing we know for certain is that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is about to lose the most visible world leader who largely agreed with his approach to global politics—complete with climate change denial—that gave Bolsonaro some cover on the global stage. With Trump’s exit, Bolsonaro now becomes the torchbearer for this particular kind of politics, and it’s far from clear he’s ready for that role. To say nothing of the fact that Bolsonaro now needs to deal with a U.S. president that is about to make the environment a priority. Hard to see how the next few years will get any easier for Bolsonaro.

Russia—And what did Russia get for having the most pro-Russia U.S. president in generations sitting in the Oval Office? Shockingly little… which is what happens when the president is a fan, but the rest of Washington (Republican, Democrats, and the national security establishment) is most decidedly not. From that perspective, a Trump loss isn’t a devastating blow for Moscow. But when your country has spent the past four years trying to stoke divisions in the U.S. and inserting itself in all manner of geopolitical hotspots around the world, losing a figure as divisive as Trump—and replacing him with the consensus-building Biden—you’re not moving in the right direction.

Turkey—Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan really didn’t need the additional hit of a Trump loss this year. COVID has squeezed Turkey’s already-ailing economy, which in turn has squeezed Erdogan’s popularity. His response? Taking aggressive moves abroad to change the narrative back home. Hence the Turkish forays into the Eastern Mediterranean, in Nagorno-Karabakh, in Syria, in Libya… all made possible by Trump’s broad indifference to anything outside his immediate orbit, and Erdogan’s personally warm relationship with Trump. That’s about to change with a President Biden who will take a more active interest in E.U. and global affairs, which makes life a whole lot more challenging for Erdogan both at home and abroad.

DEPENDS WHO YOU ASK:

China—One of the principal reasons China has been so successful in recent years is that it has taken a comprehensively strategic approach to global affairs. Biden’s victory will be viewed through that same strategic lens; in the short term, a Biden presidency benefits China as it relieves some of the short-term pressure on the U.S.-China relationship (though, critically, it doesn’t fundamentally improve the trajectory of it) and brings more predictability to the global economy, which China needs to continue its economic rise. The stability a Biden presidency ushers in also buys China time to build up its resiliency to whatever trade and tech fights lay ahead. On the other hand, a second Trump term would have provided China a bigger opening—and a more compelling argument—that the world needs more Chinese global leadership, not less.

LET’S FACE IT, WE HAVE NO IDEA:

North Korea—Will Kim Jong-un’s regime be upset that the most overtly friendly U.S. leader it has seen in decades is on his way out, even if he didn’t deliver a deal that declared peace or eased sanctions? Or will Kim be open to structured negotiations with a U.S. president who will demand more concessions but also be more likely to honor, and build broad support in Washington for, a good-faith compromise between the U.S. and North Korea if one is ever reached? Whether Kim welcomes Biden with a show of force in the coming months will provide some sense of how a Kim-Biden combo might play out. But it will be hard for Kim to resist doing something naughty to make sure he has Biden’s attention. Anyone who tells you they know what’s going to happen… is lying to you.